Super Typhoon 11W (Muifa), # 7: It's a big one!
Published: July 31, 2011
1 p.m. Sunday, July 31, Japan time: They’re calling it Super Typhoon Muifa for a reason. In a span of less than 18 hours, Muifa went from Category I- to Category IV-equivalent status and in relatively short order should become a Cat V-equivalent storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track (noon Sunday local time) calls for Muifa to rumble 26 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 8 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 138-mph winds and 167-mph gusts at its center.
Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest forecast (12:30 p.m. Sunday) calls for the following wind timeline:
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, 6 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 9 p.m. Tuesday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 9 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, between 9 p.m. Thursday-2 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 98-mph winds and 144-mph gusts between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 6 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 8 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 10 a.m. Saturday.
PST can’t say it enough and with very great emphasis: This one’s big. Even the locals, laid-back, friendly folk given to frequent fits of understatement, are using terms like “sugoi” and “taihen” regarding Muifa’s potential severity.
Not since I’ve been doing this on a consistent basis since the fall of 2004 has PST ever – and I mean ever – seen a tropical cyclone forecast to peak at 180-mph sustained winds and 220-mph gusts, until now (between 9 p.m. Monday and 9 a.m. Tuesday, when Muifa will still be quite far from Okinawa).
What remains most worrisome is how Muifa’s forward speed has slowed to a virtual crawl. Over the last 18 hours, Muifa has slowed from 12 mph to just over 3 mph, and over an area of high ocean heat content, on which tropical cyclones feast as PST does over a well-done Porterhouse steak, baked potato and a glass of Bordeaux. The longer it remains over high OHC areas, the fatter and more monstrous it grows.
No accelerated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness have been issued yet, but take heed, my Okinawa peepz: Start preparing for this thing NOW. It is NEVER too soon. Clean up around your home or tower apartment right away, and do the same around your office or work area tomorrow. Stock up on batteries, bottled water and non-perishable foods.
For those living off base on Okinawa with AFN satellite decoder boxes, Channel 21 shows the local sea and typhoon conditions. Keep in mind, though, that the signal could be interrupted during heavy squalls, which will likely occur. Wave 89.1-FM, Surf 648-AM or AFN Okinawa’s Facebook page are also available.
Start preparing now. Better safe than sorry. Better to have too many supplies and a storm veering away at the last minute than to have it run over us and not be prepared.
expected to hit okinawa thursday a category five.
